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Snow develops Wednesday night: A break-down

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Posted at 8:12 AM, Nov 16, 2022

Today's Forecast: Temperatures will remain mild but below average for the area for Wednesday as a cold front lumbers its way toward the region. Highs will stay in the upper 20s and 30s with a light west wind between 5-10 mph. Clouds will be on the increase through the day with light snow developing during the late afternoon and early evening.

BOZEMAN: High: 32; Low: 4. Mostly cloudy skies will also bring light snow to the region by the evening. Winds will stay out of the west between 5-10 mph. Snow will begin late in the afternoon and pick up during the evening. Most models are keeping amounts between 1”-3” with some models indicating between 4”-6” by early Thursday.

BUTTE: High: 29; Low: 4. After a cold start to the day you can expect highs to build to the upper 20s. Light snow is likely for the early evening with 1”-3” possible early Thursday.

DILLON: High: 28; Low: 8. Cool but mild with overnight snow moving into the area. Most of the models are staying between 1”-2” with 4”-6” by early Thursday.

WEST YELLOWSTONE: High: 27; Low: 4. Clouds will stick around through the day with light snow developing through the afternoon. Snow amounts will likely be 1”-2” early Thursday.

WINTER WEATHER BREAKDOWN THROUGH THURSDAY

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The latest model runs are showing the cold front dropping into the area Wednesday evening and Thursday will bring scattered snow showers to the region. Most of the region should expect 1”-3” with mountains likely to see between 3”-6”.

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For Bozeman, the model spread is 0.5” to near 2.5”. The timing and temperatures could allow those numbers to grow. Our in-house model is more bullish with those numbers and pushing those totals to nearly 6” by mid-morning Thursday. While those numbers seem high, we certainly could see those numbers locally higher based on intensity of the snow, temperature, and wind direction. We would expect a slick and dangerous drive early Thursday.

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In Butte, our numbers have been consistent overall with between 0.5”-2.5”. Our in-house model is showing lighter accumulation through Thursday morning. The model trend shows that we will see those numbers closer to 1”-2” total through Thursday.

One complicating factor to the forecast will come down to temperatures. Our temperatures will fall significantly by Thursday with highs in the teens and overnight lows falling to -10° or colder Friday evening and early Saturday. That will keep snow and ice in place into the weekend.