MONTANA — A mild November pattern will dominate Montana and northern Wyoming this week. Winds ease tonight after a very gusty Sunday, then a weak system brings more clouds, mountain showers and another round of breezy conditions Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure strengthens Wednesday through Friday, favoring dry, increasingly warm weather, although western Montana valleys may become trapped under fog and low clouds.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Strong winds gradually diminish across Montana this evening. The most significant winds have been along the Rocky Mountain Front and north-central Montana, while south-central Montana has also experienced strong winds around Livingston, Nye and the western foothills. Northeast Montana remains breezy before winds settle later tonight. Western Montana will hold onto considerable cloud cover with isolated showers possible, particularly across northwest Montana and near the Idaho border.
MONDAY
Monday turns cooler but remains relatively mild for November. Highs will generally reach the 50s across much of Montana and northern Wyoming. Western and northwest Montana will remain cloudier, with isolated showers continuing near the mountains and Canadian border. Most of central, eastern and southern Montana should stay dry with considerably lighter winds than Sunday.
MONDAY NIGHT
Another disturbance approaches the Northern Rockies, increasing clouds and bringing some light precipitation back toward the western and central mountains. Winds will also begin increasing again near the Rocky Mountain Front. Northeast Montana will see increasing cloud cover as the system approaches from the west, but measurable precipitation there looks limited.
TUESDAY
The week's best opportunity for widespread unsettled weather arrives Tuesday as the disturbance crosses the region. Western Montana will see more numerous showers, but relatively warm temperatures should keep snow mainly above about 6,000 feet. Light mountain precipitation is also possible along the Continental Divide and across southwest and central Montana. South-central Montana could see isolated mountain and foothill showers, along with west winds gusting around 20 to 40 mph in some areas. Northeast Montana may catch a stray shower, although most locations there should receive little, if any, measurable precipitation.
WEDNESDAY
A ridge of high pressure begins taking control, bringing a return to generally dry and mild weather across Montana and northern Wyoming. Western Montana will be the exception to the otherwise straightforward warming trend, as strengthening valley inversions may produce morning fog, low clouds and colder conditions in places such as the Flathead, Mission, Missoula and Bitterroot valleys. Elsewhere, sunshine should help temperatures recover into the upper 50s and 60s in many locations.
THURSDAY
High pressure strengthens across the Northern Rockies, producing mostly dry weather statewide and another step upward in temperatures. The warmest conditions are expected across the plains, where November temperatures will run well above normal. Persistent inversions could continue holding areas of western Montana under patches of fog or low clouds, keeping some valleys cooler than surrounding higher terrain.
FRIDAY
Friday continues the mild and largely dry pattern. North-central Montana should be near the warmest point of the week, while south-central and southeast Montana, northeast Montana and northern Wyoming remain comfortably above seasonal averages. Western valleys could remain locally cooler if inversions and low clouds persist, although the larger-scale pattern stays mild.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND
The ridge should keep much of Montana and northern Wyoming mild and mainly dry into Saturday. Confidence then decreases as the ridge begins shifting east and eventually breaking down. That transition could allow stronger southwest flow to return, particularly across western Montana, bringing another increase in wind and eventually renewed precipitation chances along the Continental Divide and western mountains.
