BUTTE — Hot, smoky, and dry weather will continue across Butte, Bozeman, and southwest Montana through Tuesday before a cooler pattern brings increasing chances for showers later this week.
MONDAY
Summer heat remains firmly in place across southwest Montana with highs running above seasonal averages. Dry conditions, hazy skies from regional wildfire smoke, and low afternoon humidity will continue. Fire weather concerns remain elevated, especially around the Butte, Dillon, and Madison Valley areas, where dry fuels and occasional gusty winds could contribute to rapid fire growth.
TUESDAY
Little change is expected as the ridge of high pressure remains overhead. Another hot, dry day is on tap for Butte, Bozeman, and surrounding valleys with persistent haze and smoke. Relative humidity will again drop to near critical levels during the afternoon, maintaining heightened fire weather concerns across southwest Montana.
WEDNESDAY
A pattern change begins as cooler air and increasing monsoonal moisture start moving into the region. Temperatures trend downward while clouds increase through the day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and evening, although many locations will remain dry. Rainfall coverage and amounts remain somewhat uncertain.
THURSDAY
The best opportunity this week for widespread showers arrives as an upper-level trough approaches Montana. Temperatures cool noticeably, with many southwest Montana communities likely falling below seasonal averages. Periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible from Butte and Bozeman south through the Tobacco Root, Highland, and Gravelly ranges. Some locations could pick up beneficial rainfall.
FRIDAY
Cooler-than-normal conditions continue with additional chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. Forecast confidence decreases somewhat because the strength and track of the trough remain uncertain. A stronger trough would support more widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures, while a weaker system would result in fewer showers and milder conditions.
SATURDAY
Temperatures begin to rebound as high pressure starts building back into the Northern Rockies. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms remain possible, especially near the mountains, but many valley locations should experience a mix of sunshine and clouds.
SUNDAY
Warmer temperatures return across southwest Montana with highs trending back toward seasonal levels. A southwest flow pattern aloft will keep a slight chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, particularly over the surrounding mountains. Overall, the weekend looks warmer and less active than the latter half of the workweek.
